Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.261230 0.294743 0.331061 0.373367 0.421327 0.474047 0.536449
2025-11-02 0.200757 0.242965 0.292110 0.353654 0.428805 0.517768 0.631346
2025-11-09 0.156184 0.201107 0.256851 0.331310 0.428490 0.551469 0.719626
2025-11-16 0.127635 0.173917 0.234790 0.321074 0.440837 0.602085 0.837169
2025-11-23 0.105581 0.151512 0.215237 0.310641 0.450824 0.650757 0.960239
2025-11-30 0.092724 0.139656 0.208104 0.315992 0.483277 0.735254 1.148217
2025-12-07 0.078050 0.122824 0.191158 0.304042 0.487909 0.779123 1.282236
2025-12-14 0.067548 0.110741 0.179520 0.298259 0.500851 0.837322 1.448493
2025-12-21 0.058950 0.100399 0.169068 0.292611 0.512789 0.895197 1.623537
2025-12-28 0.053931 0.095265 0.166392 0.299541 0.547034 0.995907 1.891170
2026-01-04 0.048184 0.088029 0.159044 0.296971 0.563583 1.067084 2.115632
2026-01-11 0.043897 0.082819 0.154556 0.298898 0.588616 1.157508 2.392840
2026-01-18 0.040591 0.079144 0.152688 0.306143 0.626344 1.280968 2.765529
2026-01-25 0.035703 0.071748 0.142720 0.295854 0.627066 1.330001 2.989852
2026-02-01 0.031042 0.064184 0.131416 0.281154 0.616240 1.353145 3.161615
2026-02-08 0.027832 0.059183 0.124680 0.275199 0.623596 1.417329 3.441597
2026-02-15 0.024937 0.054463 0.117907 0.268152 0.627369 1.474068 3.715079
2026-02-22 0.023406 0.052524 0.116899 0.274076 0.662488 1.610382 4.216559
2026-03-01 0.020931 0.048129 0.109825 0.264678 0.658970 1.652069 4.478856
2026-03-08 0.019082 0.044943 0.105112 0.260303 0.667333 1.725115 4.841682
2026-03-15 0.017432 0.042017 0.100629 0.255838 0.674751 1.796981 5.216264
2026-03-22 0.016577 0.040910 0.100384 0.262181 0.711914 1.954937 5.875664
2026-03-29 0.015348 0.038712 0.097153 0.260167 0.725854 2.051008 6.368294